GENERAL
Nickname: Mustangs
Colors: Blue/White/Red
Coach: Trent Herzog
League: Redwood Empire - Bay (moving from North Bay - Redwood)
Section: North Coast
Playoff Division: 7
Playoff Division Rank: #1
RETURNERS
Returning Offensive Starters: 7
Returning Defensive Starters: 6
2023 JV Record: 4-4
Starting Quarterback Returning: yes
Top Running Back Returning: yes
Top Receiver Returning: no
Top OL Returning: yes
Top Defender Returning: yes
TOP PLAYERS
Rob Rooks 6'3" 265 OL/DL 5.0
Tye Nickens 6'0" 175 WR/CB 4.5
Gabe Casanovas 6'3" 205 QB 4.7
STRENGTHS/WEAKNESSES
Team Strengths: Speed, Athleticism, Experience
Team Weaknesses: Depth, Replacing 3 OL Starters
RATINGS
2023 Final Power Rating: 19.4
2023 National Rank: #2348
2023 State Rank: #175
General Personnel (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment: +5.5
D1 Talent (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment: +1.5
Season Scaling/Reg Season Schedule Strength Downward Rating Adjustment: -4.6
2024 Starting Power Rating: 9.8
2024 National Rank: #1686
2024 State Rank: #138
5-Year Dynasty Rating (Average 2018-2023 Rating): 1.3
5-Year Dynasty National Rank: #5376
2024 Rating vs. 5-Year Dynasty Rating Comparison: better by 6
5-Year Dynasty Record: 47-9-1 (12-2-1 in league)
Dynasty Rating (Average 2003-2023 Rating): -8.7
Dynasty National Rank: #10677
2024 Rating vs. Dynasty Rating Comparison: better by 16
Dynasty Record: 142-88-1 (55-35-1 in league)
HISTORICAL
2023 Overall Record: 13-2
2023 League Record/Finish: 3-1 (2nd)
2023 Points For Average: 40.9
2023 Points Against Average: 16.5
2023 Differential: +24.4
2023 Wins: #3820 Palo Alto (28-26), #4499 St. Bernard's (Eureka) (45-21), #4533 Fortuna (45-21), #4533 Fortuna (22-15), #5159 Salesian (Richmond) (48-12), #5812 Wasco (27-6), #6017 Carrillo [Maria] (Santa Rosa) (42-14), #9120 Oakland Tech (Oakland) (48-19), #9252 Piner (Santa Rosa) (54-6), #10005 Balboa (San Francisco) (30-7), #10783 Kennedy [John F.] (Richmond) (56-12), #11273 De Anza (El Sobrante) (58-20), #12261 Healdsburg (55-7)
2023 Losses: #4176 Ukiah (25-21), #7487 Montgomery (Santa Rosa) (37-35)
2023 Opponents W-L: 94-80-1
Recent Section/State Championships: 2023 (6), 2023 (Bowl 6-AA), 2021, 2008 (V), 2005 (B)
Recent League Championships: 2022 (North Bay - Redwood), 2021 (tied for 1st; North Bay - Redwood), 2020 (North Bay - Group 2), 2014 (North Central II), 2013 (tied for 1st; North Central II/Bay Football), 2012 (tied for 1st; North Central II/Bay Football), 2008 (tied for 1st; North Central I - South), 2005 (North Central I South)
Winning Streak Entering 2024 Season: 7
Streak List: 10/27/23 Healdsburg (55-7), 11/3/23 Carrillo [Maria] (Santa Rosa) (42-14), 11/11/23 Kennedy [John F.] (Richmond) (56-12), 11/18/23 Fortuna (45-21), 11/25/23 Salesian (Richmond) (48-12), 12/1/23 Palo Alto (28-26), 12/8/23 Wasco (27-6)
SCHEDULE
2024 Schedule: 8/30 at De Anza (El Sobrante), 9/6 at Truckee, 9/14 at Balboa (San Francisco), 9/21 Lowell (San Francisco), 10/5 Fortuna, 10/11 at Santa Rosa, 10/19 Analy (Sebastopol), 10/25 at Ukiah, 11/2 Montgomery (Santa Rosa), 11/8 at Carrillo [Maria] (Santa Rosa)
Highest-Rated 2024 Regular Season Opponents: Truckee (6.4), Ukiah (-9.2), Fortuna (-10.3)
Lowest-Rated 2024 Regular Season Opponents: De Anza (El Sobrante) (-47.7), Lowell (San Francisco) (-47.6), Santa Rosa (-41.7)
2023 Regular Season Schedule Strength: -13 (-6.8 overall)
2024 Regular Season Schedule Strength: -26.9
2024 vs. 2023 Schedule Strength Comparison: -13.9
2024 Regular Season Schedule Strength State Rank: #530
2024 Regular Season Schedule Strength National Rank: #8018
2024 Projected Regular Season Record: 9-1
2024 Projected League Finish: 1st
2024 Undefeated Regular Season Probability: 32%