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RUNNING-THE-TABLE

CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (53%), 2 (57%), 3 (58%), 4 (60%), 5 (61%), 6 (62%), 7 (65%), 8 (72%), 9 (73%), 10 (74%), 11 (75%), 12 (77%), 13 (80%), 14 (81%), 15 (84%), 16 (86%), 17 (87%), 18 (87%), 19 (88%), 20 (88%), 21 (90%), 22 (92%), 23 (93%), 24 (94%), 25 (95%), 26 (95%), 27 (96%), 28 (96%), 29 (97%), 30 (97%), 31 (97%), 32 (98%), 33 (98%), 34 (98%), 35 (98%), 36 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

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RANK SCHOOL SECTION LEAGUE CHANCE RECORD PROJECTED RECORD RATING HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1 Glendora (CA) Southern Citrus 4 100% 10-0 10-0 48.1 none none
2 Thacher (Ojai, CA) Southern Mt. Pinos (8 Man) 100% 7-0 7-0 36.6 none none
3 Antelope (CA) Sac-Joaquin Capital Valley 100% 9-0 9-0 36 none none
4 Woodland Christian (Woodland, CA) Sac-Joaquin Sacramento Metro 100% 8-0 8-0 -8.1 none none
5 Dos Palos (CA) Central West Sierra 100% 10-0 10-0 10.8 none none
6 Mission Oak (Tulare, CA) Central East Yosemite 100% 9-0 9-0 26.5 none none
7 Centennial (Corona, CA) Southern Big VIII 100% 10-0 10-0 102.8 none none
8 Inglewood (CA) Southern Ocean 100% 8-0 8-0 61.4 none none
9 Woodside Priory (Portola Valley, CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 21.6 none none
10 Wasco (CA) Central South Sequoia 100% 9-0 9-0 21.8 none none
11 St. Francis (Mountain View, CA) Central Coast West Catholic 100% 9-0 9-0 72.2 none none
12 Branson (Ross, CA) North Coast North Central IV (8 Man) 100% 8-0 8-0 41.3 none none
13 University Prep (Redding, CA) Northern Northern 100% 10-0 10-0 19.4 none none
14 Strathmore (CA) Central East Sequoia 100% 10-0 10-0 17.1 none none
15 Mayfair (Lakewood, CA) Southern Suburban 100% 9-0 9-0 27.8 none none
16 Campbell Hall (North Hollywood, CA) Southern Gold Coast 100% 10-0 10-0 22.5 none none
17 San Joaquin Memorial (Fresno, CA) Central County/Metro 100% 8-0 8-0 57.1 none none
18 Simi Valley (CA) Southern Canyon 100% 10-0 10-0 50.1 none none
19 Salinas (CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast - Gabilan 100% 8-0 8-0 45 none none
20 Monrovia (CA) Southern Rio Hondo 100% 10-0 10-0 28.6 none none
21 Norte Vista (Riverside, CA) Southern River Valley 100% 9-0 9-0 31.9 none none
22 Fall River (McArthur, CA) Northern Cascade Valley 100% 9-0 9-0 17.1 none none
23 Dymally (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles Metro 100% 9-0 9-0 -7.8 none none
24 Yorba Linda (CA) Southern Crestview 100% 10-0 10-0 54.2 none none
25 St. Genevieve (Panorama City, CA) Southern Camino Real 100% 9-0 9-0 30.9 none none
26 Santa Fe Christian (Solana Beach, CA) San Diego Coastal 100% 9-0 9-0 31 none none
27 Mater Dei (Chula Vista, CA) San Diego Metro - Mesa 100% 8-0 8-0 62 none none
28 Los Gatos (CA) Central Coast De Anza 100% 10-0 10-0 52.6 none none
29 Baldwin Park (CA) Southern Mt. Baldy 4 100% 10-0 10-0 1.1 none none
30 Carlsbad (CA) San Diego Avocado 100% 10-0 10-0 63.9 none none
31 Mission Prep (San Luis Obispo, CA) Central Ocean 100% 9-0 9-0 29.8 none none
32 Santa Cruz (CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast - Mission 100% 9-0 9-0 23.5 none none
33 Menlo (Atherton, CA) Central Coast Peninsula - Ocean 100% 10-0 10-0 38.3 none none
34 St. Bonaventure (Ventura, CA) Southern Marmonte 100% 9-0 9-0 60.2 none none
35 Warren (Downey, CA) Southern San Gabriel Valley 100% 8-0 8-0 59.6 none none
36 Lincoln [Abraham] (Los Angeles, CA) Los Angeles Northern 100% 10-0 10-0 7.1 none none
37 Rocklin (CA) Sac-Joaquin Sierra Foothill 100% 10-0 10-0 62.8 none none
38 West Hills (Santee, CA) San Diego Grossmont - Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 14.1 none none
39 Davis [Grace] (Modesto, CA) Sac-Joaquin Western 100% 10-0 10-0 9.6 none none
40 North [John W.] (Riverside, CA) Southern Sunbelt 100% 10-0 10-0 37.8 none none
41 Palisades (Pacific Palisades, CA) Los Angeles Western 100% 10-0 10-0 29.2 none none
42 Fresno Christian (Fresno, CA) Central Central Sierra (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 53.7 none none
43 Arroyo (El Monte, CA) Southern Mission Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 11.2 none none
44 Etiwanda (CA) Southern Baseline 100% 10-0 10-0 60.9 none none
45 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) Southern Trinity 100% 8-0 8-0 116.1 none none
46 California School for the Deaf (Riverside, CA) Southern Victory (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 29.6 none none
47 Cajon (San Bernardino, CA) Southern Citrus Belt 100% 10-0 10-0 53 none none
48 Irvine (CA) Southern Pacific Hills 100% 10-0 10-0 34.6 none none
49 San Diego Jewish Academy (San Diego, CA) San Diego Ocean (8 Man) 100% 7-0 7-0 20.8 none none
50 Tennyson (Hayward, CA) North Coast MVAL/WACC - Shoreline 100% 9-0 9-0 10.2 none none