hsratings.com

CALPREPS.COM
Your source for high school football scores, standings & rankings

RUNNING-THE-TABLE

CALIFORNIA TEAMS WITH THE BEST STATISTICAL CHANCE TO GO UNDEFEATED AND UNTIED IN THE REGULAR SEASON

Explanation: Based on their "projection" power ratings (and home field advantage), each team is given a certain percent chance to win each of their known remaining games. These numbers are based on historical data; a team rated 7 points higher than another has won 82% of the time in the past, etc. The individual game percentages are then multiplied together to find the chance of "running the table". Eg: A team with two games remaining, each deemed 50% chances of winning has a 25% chance of winning both (.5 x .5 = .25)

Chances of winning for each difference in power ratings: 1 (53%), 2 (57%), 3 (58%), 4 (60%), 5 (61%), 6 (62%), 7 (65%), 8 (72%), 9 (73%), 10 (74%), 11 (75%), 12 (77%), 13 (80%), 14 (81%), 15 (84%), 16 (86%), 17 (87%), 18 (87%), 19 (88%), 20 (88%), 21 (90%), 22 (92%), 23 (93%), 24 (94%), 25 (95%), 26 (95%), 27 (96%), 28 (96%), 29 (97%), 30 (97%), 31 (97%), 32 (98%), 33 (98%), 34 (98%), 35 (98%), 36 and up (99%)

Note: "Projection" ratings are the ones we use to project game scores. They are very much like the other ratings seen on this site, except that recent results are weighted more heavily and the "politically correct" moderately-low cutoff point at which margin of victory is no longer counted is eliminated.

6/8/9-man teams must have played two games this season before being included in this chart. Any team playing less than a 6 game regular-season schedule will not be included. Historical ratings of the teams (including head-to-head history) are a very small factor in projections.

see another state

RANK SCHOOL SECTION LEAGUE CHANCE RECORD PROJECTED RECORD RATING HIGHEST RATED REMAINING OPPONENT REMAINING GAMES (Chance Of Winning)
1 San Fernando (CA) Los Angeles Valley Mission 100% 9-0 9-0 17.9 none none
2 Cypress (CA) Southern Empire 100% 10-0 10-0 32.3 none none
3 Scripps Ranch (San Diego, CA) San Diego City 100% 10-0 10-0 27.5 none none
4 Kingsburg (CA) Central Central Sequoia 100% 10-0 10-0 32.2 none none
5 Serrano (Phelan, CA) Southern Mojave River 100% 10-0 10-0 35.7 none none
6 Rio Hondo Prep (Arcadia, CA) Southern Prep 100% 8-0 8-0 18.1 none none
7 Alhambra (CA) Southern Almont 100% 10-0 10-0 10.5 none none
8 Half Moon Bay (CA) Central Coast Peninsula - Ocean 100% 10-0 10-0 32.1 none none
9 McClymonds (Oakland, CA) Oakland Oakland 100% 9-0 9-0 41.4 none none
10 Inglewood (CA) Southern Pioneer 100% 10-0 10-0 27.6 none none
11 Foothill (Santa Ana, CA) Southern North Hills 100% 10-0 10-0 34.8 none none
12 Coast Union (Cambria, CA) Southern Coast Valley (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 22.4 none none
13 Center (Antelope, CA) Sac-Joaquin Pioneer Valley 100% 9-0 9-0 39.1 none none
14 Corona del Mar (Newport Beach, CA) Southern Sunset 100% 10-0 10-0 67.8 none none
15 Central (Fresno, CA) Central Tri-River 100% 10-0 10-0 67.9 none none
16 Mission Viejo (CA) Southern South Coast 100% 10-0 10-0 72.6 none none
17 Hanford (CA) Central West Yosemite 100% 10-0 10-0 32.5 none none
18 Marquez [Linda Esperanza] (Huntington Park, CA) Los Angeles Central 100% 10-0 10-0 -4.5 none none
19 Chester (CA) Northern California - South (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 28.6 none none
20 Inderkum (Sacramento, CA) Sac-Joaquin Capital Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 38.9 none none
21 West Valley (Cottonwood, CA) Northern Northern 100% 10-0 10-0 25.3 none none
22 Crescenta Valley (La Crescenta, CA) Southern Pacific 100% 10-0 10-0 33.9 none none
23 Bishop's (La Jolla, CA) San Diego Coastal 100% 10-0 10-0 33.7 none none
24 Buhach Colony (Atwater, CA) Sac-Joaquin Central California - CCC 100% 10-0 10-0 30.2 none none
25 Paradise (CA) Northern Freelance 100% 10-0 10-0 25.3 none none
26 El Monte (CA) Southern Mission Valley 100% 10-0 10-0 28.7 none none
27 St. Pius X-St. Matthias (Downey, CA) Southern Santa Fe 100% 9-0 9-0 8.7 none none
28 Ayala [Ruben S.] (Chino Hills, CA) Southern Palomares 100% 10-0 10-0 37.2 none none
29 Culver City (CA) Southern Ocean 100% 10-0 10-0 44.1 none none
30 Kaiser [Henry J.] (Fontana, CA) Southern Sunkist 100% 10-0 10-0 28.2 none none
31 Foothills Christian (El Cajon, CA) San Diego Ocean (8 Man) 100% 9-0 9-0 30.2 none none
32 Windward (Los Angeles, CA) Southern Prep (8 Man) 100% 7-0 7-0 67.6 none none
33 La Serna (Whittier, CA) Southern Del Rio 100% 10-0 10-0 45.5 none none
34 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) Southern Trinity 100% 10-0 10-0 96.1 none none
35 San Diego Jewish Academy (San Diego, CA) San Diego Citrus (8 Man) 100% 7-0 7-0 -0.2 none none
36 Cornerstone Christian (Antioch, CA) Central Coast Pacific Coast (8 Man) 100% 10-0 10-0 42.5 none none
37 Oak Park (CA) Southern Canyon 100% 10-0 10-0 18.3 none none